Russia’s “competitor” to Starlink began its path to success with one of the first 16 “Rassvet” satellites already returning to its creators. Satellite No. 4 chose not to concern itself with minor details such as reaching operational orbit and concluded its mission during the launch phase instead. The remaining spacecraft are still in orbit for now, although after such a debut, it is hard not to watch them with a stopwatch nearby.
So I started imagining whether Elon Musk managed to suppress a smile after reading the news about this “Starlink competitor.” What follows is an imagined internal monologue from Musk himself.
TABLE OF CONTENT:
About Competitors That Do Not Exist
So, I just heard some excellent news. Russia lost a satellite. One out of sixteen. On day 75 of the mission. Let me think. Seventy. Five. Days. You know, we lose satellites too. It happens. But we usually manage to at least switch them on before they start falling back down. That is something of an unspoken industry standard – first activate the satellite, then lose it. Not the other way around.
For several years now, people have been telling me about the “Russian Starlink.” Journalists keep asking, “Are you concerned about Russian competition?” I used to answer politely. Now I can answer honestly: “No.”
Bureau 1440 launched sixteen satellites in March. Two weeks later, none of them had moved at all. Sixteen out of sixteen were simply sitting in orbit doing absolutely nothing. Like extremely expensive scrap metal in zero gravity. Which, incidentally, is technically impressive in its own way – doing nothing in orbit costs roughly the same as doing something.
Then, fortunately for everyone involved, fifteen of them eventually came to life. Fifteen out of sixteen. A result that, in almost any other industry, would be described as a failure is being presented here as a success. And you know what – I almost agree. Compared to the first two weeks, it genuinely does look like progress.
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An Elegant Solution to the Quality Problem
Now, about Object No. 4 – the one that decided not to function at all. It simply kept falling. Methodically, drifting slightly lower every day for two straight months until the atmosphere resolved the issue permanently. No maneuvers. No response to commands. Possibly the calmest satellite in the history of spaceflight.
And here I have to give credit where it is due. Deploying satellites into low orbit means that a failed spacecraft eventually disposes of itself. Automatically. Without additional expense. That is actually a smart engineering decision – assuming, of course, that you expect to have failed spacecraft in quantities large enough for the feature to matter. We do the same thing, by the way. The difference is that we call it a “controlled quality assurance process,” not a “production program.”
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About Ambition and Arithmetic
Two hundred and fifty satellites by 2027. Nine hundred by 2035. An impressive plan. I like ambitious plans – I spend most of my life making them. But there is one small complication.
To deploy 900 satellites, you need a factory that operates reliably, regular launch capability, access to electronic components, and – a minor detail – money. Russia’s current situation with all of those requirements is, let us say, uneven at best. Sanctions limit access to component supply chains. The state budget has other priorities. And manufacturing capacity is a separate and rather fascinating subject altogether.
I am not saying it is impossible. I am saying the arithmetic looks optimistic. Extremely optimistic. Almost as optimistic as launching sixteen satellites, getting fifteen functioning units out of them, and calling that the beginning of competition with Starlink. We currently have several thousand spacecraft in orbit. Let me check… Yes. Still alive.
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Final Thoughts for Those Following the Market
Competition is good. I mean that seriously. Competition forces everyone to work better, faster, and cheaper. I welcome any competitor capable of presenting a genuine alternative. “Rassvet” is not that alternative. “Rassvet” is fifteen satellites in low orbit, one that has already burned up, and a press office maintaining silence with the same consistency that Object No. 4 maintained altitude. Which is to say – not at all.
“Rassvet” translates as “dawn.” So far, however, this looks less like sunrise and more like deep night with a falling light in the distance. We will be watching the next launch on June 18. Assuming it actually happens. Assuming the satellites make it into orbit. Assuming they switch on. That is a remarkable number of “ifs” for a “major space power.” Still, there is always a chance to surprise people.
Respectfully,
Elon Musk
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