French President Emmanuel Macron has announced plans to transfer 16 Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine, with deliveries scheduled for 2028–2029. Training for Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel is expected to begin in the near future.
In addition, Paris intends to grant Ukraine licensing rights to domestically produce Aster 30 missiles used by the SAMP/T air defense system, AASM Hammer precision-guided aerial bombs, and SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles (also known as Storm Shadow).
The delivery of the latest SAMP/T NG air defense system is also expected within the next few weeks. The system is equipped with Aster 30 B1NT missiles, which are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles in addition to other aerial threats.
According to the proposed roadmap for modernizing Ukraine’s air fleet with Swedish and French aircraft, deliveries of 16 Swedish Gripen C/D fighter jets are expected to begin in the early months of 2027. This is to be followed by the delivery of 16 French Rafale fighter jets during 2028–2029, although the specific variant has not yet been disclosed. Beginning in 2029, deliveries of an additional 16 Gripen E aircraft – the latest generation of the Swedish fighter – are also planned.
At present, however, no precise details regarding the Rafale transfer have been disclosed. The primary unresolved issue concerns the specific aircraft variant that will ultimately be delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Although Dassault is steadily increasing its production capacity, its manufacturing schedule remains committed to existing orders for years ahead. As a result, it is unclear whether any current customer – including France itself – would be willing to relinquish its production slot. A more plausible scenario is that a number of fighter jets could be drawn directly from the French Air and Space Force’s existing fleet, with those aircraft later replaced by newly manufactured airframes.
Another challenge concerns the supply of munitions, as France’s defense industry is already struggling to meet the simultaneous requirements of its own armed forces, export customers, and Ukraine. These constraints are particularly evident in the production of advanced MICA air-to-air missiles, with existing inventories already subject to strict allocation measures.
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Source: French Aid to Europe
