Can the U.S. Plant Its Flag on Mars?

Trump has claimed that the U.S. will conquer Mars during his second term. Is this even possible? Is there a technical feasibility for a mission to the Red Planet?

It seems that Donald Trump’s enthusiasm following his second presidential inauguration knows no bounds. He has made so many bold statements that the world is buzzing about the Panama Canal, Greenland, and even Mars. Elon Musk was particularly pleased by the words of the 47th President of the United States. His long-standing dream of landing a human on Mars using SpaceX’s Starship rockets is well known. While Musk is uncertain if he will personally make the journey to the Red Planet, he has said in an interview that the probability of humans reaching Mars is about 70%. Now, he might finally find out, despite the fact that the latest Starship test did not go as planned.

There are several interesting questions to consider. Is a manned mission to Mars possible? And if so, when? Musk’s most ambitious plans involve sending up to a million settlers to Mars over the next 20 years. Recently, it was announced that the first SpaceX rockets, initially without passengers and later with astronauts, will head there by 2030. These plans align well with Trump’s statement, as he will be leaving office in 2029. By the way, during his first presidential term, he established the Space Force.

However, during his first presidency, American society was deeply divided over the need for Mars colonization. In a 2019 Associated Press survey, only 3 out of 10 respondents considered sending people to Mars a priority, while 4 out of 10 viewed such a mission as unimportant or even unnecessary. The situation may change now, though not all experts are convinced of this.

TABLE OF CONTENT:

Why we have not visited Mars before

It’s often said that when you don’t know what’s going on, it’s about the money. In the case of space missions, this is certainly true. Besides the issue of the knowledge required for long-duration space missions—knowledge that NASA lacked during the Apollo missions—moon flights require massive budget expenditures. The truth is that in the 1960s, NASA had its golden years and the largest funding, but even that wasn’t enough for Mars missions.

The German-American aerospace engineer and space architect Wernher von Braun once envisioned exploring the Red Planet. In 1952, he wrote the book Project Mars, where he outlined plans to send 70 people on 10 spacecraft. It’s worth noting that these ambitious plans came from someone who had worked for the Nazi regime during World War II and later played a key role in facilitating the American moon landing. However, back then, it was easier to present ambitious ideas than to develop the necessary technologies to make them a reality.

In the 20th century, a Mars mission required massive investments, and since only NASA was capable of such a feat at the time, it needed Congressional approval. Similarly, today, if NASA collaborates with SpaceX on a Mars mission, Congress would need to provide the necessary funding. However, just recently, during Biden’s presidency, all efforts have been focused on a moon landing. NASA is currently involved in the Artemis lunar program, in which SpaceX is expected to play a significant role, particularly in building the lunar lander. A sudden shift in priorities would not be favorable for politicians.

Just over 50 years ago, NASA even decided to halt further development of the Apollo program, redirecting its efforts toward the creation of space shuttles and, over time, focusing on Mars exploration through unmanned missions.

Today, rovers the size of small cars travel across Mars, and one of them, Perseverance, has even collected soil samples. These achievements demonstrate that humanity has made significant progress, but once again, the issue comes down to money. The cost of such a mission, which can reach up to 11 billion dollars, is a limit NASA cannot exceed. As a result, more cost-effective options are being considered, possibly through partnerships with SpaceX or competitors like Blue Origin, but these are still multi-billion-dollar expenses.

By the way, the American flag has been placed on Mars multiple times, but never by a human. For instance, a metal plaque commemorating the events of September 11, 2001, was mounted on the Spirit rover.

Let’s return to project funding. Even the most cost-effective manned mission to Mars will not come cheaply. In 2016, during a conference in Vienna, a NASA representative presented estimates for such a project: nearly 500 billion dollars. So how can NASA venture to Mars when even smaller expenditures are a problem? Even seemingly minor details, like spacesuits, turn out to be a challenge, as evidenced by last year’s issues with spacewalks outside the International Space Station.

Money is not the only problem to overcome

Eliminating budget constraints is just the first hurdle to overcome in reaching Mars. Private companies can play a crucial role here, as they don’t rely solely on government funding but also have their own income sources or access to them. Additionally, they can offer more cost-effective transportation solutions. This is where the SpaceX Starship project comes into focus. From the outset, it was designed with the goal of drastically reducing the costs of launching payloads into orbit, and this is the first step toward traveling to the Moon or Mars. Presidential support is essential to help overcome procedural obstacles. It’s worth noting that for each test flight of Starship, an FAA permit is required, which is not easy to obtain.

Relevant legislation is easier to push through when it has the backing of the sitting U.S. President. Redirecting budget funds saved from other areas (and as we know, optimizing the U.S. budget was a hobby of Donald Trump) will undoubtedly speed up the first manned mission to Mars.

More funding would enable faster development of the necessary technologies, including materials essential for journeys that are a thousand times farther than a trip to the Moon. Of course, there are still concerns about astronaut health (both physical and mental), protection from harmful radiation, and adequate nutrition. These require extensive testing and research, which cannot be conducted quickly, even with today’s supercomputers. NASA has been conducting such studies since the dawn of human space exploration, although many challenges and unanswered questions remain. For instance, the longest time a human has spent in space near Earth is 1.2 years, which is more than twice as short as a future Mars mission. However, the Apollo missions also demanded great courage and bravery from the astronauts.

Even if astronauts traveling to Mars are equipped with the latest technological advancements, they are still venturing into the unknown. Scientists know very little about such long-duration missions. Today, even a manned mission to Earth’s orbit remains a challenge. Without bold decisions, possibly even ones that risk the crew’s health, humanity will not be able to reach Mars anytime soon.

Is Starship ready to fly to Mars?

The Mars mission itself is the first stage of the so-called colonization of the Red Planet. While Starship may be the rocket to transport humans to and from Mars, it is still in the testing phase. SpaceX is working on many components of Starship simultaneously, not only on the propulsion system, which is publicly evaluated during launches and landings, but also on avionics, software, and computers. While not widely discussed, Starship is clearly more than just a flying fuel tank with engines.

The Starship program is progressing quite rapidly. The first test flight of the so-called Starhopper took place in July 2019. The first flight of the completed two-stage Starship rocket occurred in April 2023. Today, seven test flights are already behind. Overall, SpaceX has successfully managed to launch the rocket into orbit and land both stages, though not simultaneously.

You’re absolutely right—while Starship shows promise, it’s still far from being ready for crewed interplanetary flights. The recent Starship failure illustrates the inherent risks of the program, and it’s clear that each mission remains a significant challenge. Even though SpaceX is working quickly to address defects and improve the system, a lot of testing is still required before human passengers can safely board the spacecraft.

NASA’s parallel project, the Space Launch System (SLS), which is expected to be the first to send humans to the Moon, is indeed delayed and extremely costly, with an estimated total cost of around $100 billion by 2025. Moreover, the SLS depends on other companies to build the lunar lander, with SpaceX and a modified Starship upper stage being among the leading contenders for that role. Thus, while the SLS and Starship programs are moving forward, they are not without their respective challenges.

You raise a critical point about the complexity of a crewed mission to Mars. While SpaceX’s experience with the International Space Station (ISS) missions has provided valuable lessons in space travel, the challenges of a Mars mission are much more demanding. The long duration of the journey—six months one way, plus the extended stay on Mars and the return trip—adds layers of difficulty not only in terms of technology but also human endurance.

The vast distance between Earth and Mars is a major factor. Perseverance’s trip of 472 million kilometers is a good example of the sheer scale, but the return mission will likely involve additional logistical complexities, such as ensuring enough fuel for the return trip and supporting the astronauts’ needs during their stay on Mars.

As you rightly point out, the more equipment and supplies sent to Mars, the better the astronauts will be able to handle the harsh Martian environment. However, the reliability of the spacecraft and equipment, including the rocket (Starship), remains a big unknown. Even with the impressive advancements SpaceX has made in testing, we don’t yet know how these systems will perform over the long term, especially on a mission of such duration. Testing on smaller, uncrewed missions to Mars is certainly an important step, but until such missions happen, the risks remain high.

Skepticism from experts is understandable, as the technological hurdles and the need for rigorous testing are immense. A successful Mars mission will require not just technological advancements but also a reliable safety record to ensure the well-being of astronauts on such a lengthy, perilous journey.

Reaching Mars is only part of the challenge. Astronauts will need the proper equipment to build a base—potentially underground—along with systems for generating oxygen and power, such as small nuclear reactors, not to mention provisions for food. This will require long-term collaboration between various NASA departments and other space exploration companies, whose contributions could complement those of SpaceX.

Will people plant a flag on Mars under Trump

Despite the enthusiasm of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, it’s difficult to provide a definitive answer to this question, both in the affirmative and the negative. With four years remaining in his presidency, it’s hard to say how things will unfold. One thing is certain: SpaceX still has a lot to learn. It needs to master not only reliable flights to and from Earth’s orbit but also missions to other celestial bodies. While there is likely to be a shift in focus toward Mars missions, a trip to the Moon seems like a crucial test phase that’s hard to overlook. In simple terms, let SpaceX’s spacecraft first deliver astronauts to the Moon and bring them back safely. Only then can we start thinking about Martian travel. Without that, it’s a huge risk, endangering the lives of the astronauts involved.

However, there are other opinions on the matter. Greg Autry, who served as a liaison between the White House and NASA during Donald Trump’s previous term, remains quite optimistic about the timeline, which anticipates a manned landing on Mars by 2029. In his view, the key factor is that the government does not obstruct Elon Musk and his projects. Autry also pointed out that Musk had announced a crewed landing on Mars as early as 2028, which is much earlier than NASA’s current plans, which aim for around 2035. This is still quite surprising, especially since NASA’s plan to bring back samples from Mars fits into a similar time window, and perhaps even later.

Regardless of whether the U.S. flag will be planted on the Martian surface by the end of the decade, it’s worth addressing the question: why is Trump so invested in Mars? It’s more than just Musk’s vision, and not only his, that suggests humanity will eventually need to move, at least partially, to other planets or into orbit.

This is also linked to Trump’s ambition to make Mars the next frontier for American exploration. It should, in a way, become the new Wild West, as proposed by Dr. Robert Zubrin. This engineer and advocate for Mars colonization had a vision for such a mission back in the mid-1990s, which forms the basis for SpaceX’s current plans. Trump, in line with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, seeks to ensure the U.S. maintains absolute leadership not only on Earth but in space as well. This is why it’s so important for Trump that Americans are the first to land on Mars. These ambitions are certainly fueled by the influence of Elon Musk on him.

Currently, the U.S. dominates Mars exploration, but China is also aiming to be among the first in the crewed race to the Red Planet, with Europe and India looking to join the effort in the future. Securing this distant outpost, often referred to as such, will be a key step in the broader exploration of the solar system. If humans manage to reach Mars and return to Earth, it will signify overcoming many technological challenges, with new technologies that will also eventually benefit life on Earth. This includes advancements in energy, medicine, and the food industry. Mars could become a source of crucial resources for Earth, but more importantly, the technological level required to travel to Mars will make space travel over shorter distances more feasible. This has been a long-standing human dream—we’ve always looked up at the stars, drawn to them. It’s in our nature. And for Trump, establishing a legacy by conquering Mars could offer an opportunity to achieve just that.

We will definitely keep track of all the events and keep you informed about them. But that’s a whole other story.

Read also: